生物与医学2019biorxiv.org
超级百岁老人集中分布在没有出生证明的地区
Supercentenarians are concentrated into regions with no birth certificates
入门 · 约 30 分钟读完前置知识：基础统计学、人口学常识
导读
这篇论文质疑超级百岁老人（110岁以上）记录的真实性，指出这些长寿记录高度集中在缺乏出生证明、记录管理薄弱的地区，暗示许多记录可能源于登记错误或养老金欺诈，而非真实的长寿。
HN 关注点：是因为它挑战了'长寿蓝区'等流行说法，并引发关于养老金欺诈和记录可靠性的大量真实案例讨论。
后来怎么样
该论文引发了对超级百岁老人记录真实性的广泛讨论，日本等国的养老金冒领案例被大量报道，促使多国加强高龄人口登记核查。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：补充 2 亲历 2
补充引用案例称史上最长寿者记录可能是身份顶替的骗局
这让我想起另一项研究：有记录的最长寿女性 Jeanne Calment 其实可能是她的女儿 Yvonne——1934 年女儿为逃避遗产税而顶替了母亲的身份。
btilly查看英文原文
I am reminded of https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/study-questions-age-worlds-oldest-woman-180971153/ which lays out the case that the oldest woman on record, Jeanne Calment, was actually her daughter Yvonne who substituted herself for her mother in 1934 to avoid inheritance taxes.
亲历亲历佐证：日本走访百岁老人时发现大量养老金欺诈
几年前日本政府决定走访所有百岁以上老人，了解他们的生活状况。结果发现 231 例养老金一直在发放、但根本找不到本人的情况。
Animats查看英文原文
A few years ago, the government of Japan decided to have people visit everyone over the age of 100, to see how they were getting along and what they were doing right.[1] They found 231 cases where pensions were being paid out but the person could not be found. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/world/asia/15japan.html
补充补充数据：日本记录中大量'在世'老人实际早已死亡
日本调查发现，超过 7.7 万名在地方政府记录中'仍然在世'的人按记录应已年满 120 岁，884 人应已 150 岁以上。调查源于警方在东京最长寿男性 Sogen Kato 的家中发现其 32 年前死亡后的干尸，其孙女因隐瞒死亡、冒领数百万日元养老金被捕。
chewz查看英文原文
> Thousands of Japanese centenarians may have died decades ago > The justice ministry said the survey found that more than 77,000 people listed as still alive in local government records would have to be aged at least 120, and 884 would be 150 or older. > The nationwide survey was launched in August after police discovered the mummified corpse of Sogen Kato, who at 111 was listed as Tokyo's oldest man, in his family home 32 years after his death. > Kato's granddaughter has been arrested on suspicion of abandoning his body and receiving millions of yen in pension payments after his unreported death. > Soon after came the discovery that a 113-year-old woman listed as Tokyo's oldest resident had not been seen by her family for more than 20 years. Welfare officials have yet to locate Fusa Furuya, who was last seen in about 1986. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20627021
亲历亲历补充：战乱地区年龄记录双向失真
也存在反向情况：实际年龄比官方记录更大。我岳父母战后从越南来美国时，为了能多工作几年再退休，就报小了不少岁数。动荡和流离失所往往会摧毁政府记录。
mktmkr查看英文原文
There is also the reverse process: people who are older than officially recorded. When my in-laws came to the USA from Vietnam after the war they wanted to be able to work for a long time before anyone forced the to retire, so they just said they were 25 years old, an understatement of quite a number of years. Upheaval and displacement tend to wipe out government records.
历次讨论
- 2019Hacker News 讨论帖15 分 · 2 评
- 2019Hacker News 讨论帖462 分 · 227 评
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