能源、气候与材料2020onlinelibrary.wiley.com
提高风力发电机叶片可见性以减少鸟类死亡
Increased wind turbine rotor blade visibility to reduce avian fatalities
入门 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：基础统计学（假设检验、p 值）、风能/风电场基本概念
导读
这篇论文研究如何降低风力涡轮机导致的鸟类死亡：在挪威 Smøla 风电场将部分涡轮机的一片叶片涂黑，提高旋转时的可见度。结果显示涂黑处理后涡轮机的鸟类死亡数下降（对照涡轮机死亡数从 7 升至 18，处理涡轮机从 11 降至 6），按季节分组估算死亡率降低约 70.9%。
HN 关注点：HN 读者围绕风力发电是否真的对鸟类构成重大威胁展开讨论，焦点是数据对比与该研究统计方法的可靠性。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：质疑 1 补充 3
质疑质疑研究的统计方法，认为结果可能是多重检验下的偶然显著
这看起来像是一个噪声很大的低概率事件。对照涡轮机的尸体记录数增加（7 vs 18），处理涡轮机减少（11 vs 6，预期 28）。而且他们似乎对不同分组做了大量假设检验来寻找 p<0.05 的显著结果：按季节分组时涂黑使季节性死亡率降低 70.9%（p=.042），但夏季死亡率反而上升。我不太信服。
3JPLW查看英文原文
This seems like a noisy low-probability event. > While the number of recorded carcasses increased at the control turbines (7 vs. 18), they decreased at the treated turbines (11 vs. 6 [expected: 28]) (Table 1). I didn't read the article very closely, but it also reads like they're doing lots of hypothesis tests on different groupings to find significant (p < 0.05) results: > However, the annual fatality rates fluctuated considerably between years (Figure 3 lower panel), stressing the necessity of a long‐term study. Seasonally, fatality rates (across years) were strongly reduced at the painted turbines after treatment during spring and autumn, but increased during summer (Figure 4). When grouping data by season instead of years, painting reduced seasonal fatality rates by 70.9% (95% CI: 61.7%–77.7%; z = −2.003, p = .042, n = 64). I'm not convinced.
补充指出涡轮机杀鸟数量相比玻璃建筑和家猫微不足道
我完全支持减少风力涡轮机造成的鸟类死亡。但也要明白，这不会显著减少人类因素导致的鸟类死亡总数。玻璃建筑杀死的鸟类是风力涡轮机的 2500 倍，家猫是 10000 倍。
dreamcompiler查看英文原文
I'm all for reducing avian fatalities from wind turbines. But it's also important to understand that this is not going to make a significant dent in how many birds are killed by human causes. Glass buildings kill 2500 times as many birds as wind turbines. House cats kill 10,000 times as many. https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/15195/wind-turbines-are-not-killing-fields-for-birds/
补充基于论文中撞死鸟类的物种构成，纠正了夜间迁徙鸟碰撞的假设
发现的最常见物种是柳雷鸟、白尾海雕、扇尾沙锥、冠小嘴乌鸦和平原鹨。海雕体型大且显眼，容易引起路人注意；雷鸟常在涡轮机基座附近被发现，疑似撞上塔身。这推翻了我以为多数碰撞发生在夜间迁徙鸟类身上的假设（也许那是建筑的问题？）。我希望这个简单的修复方法适用于所有地区，而不只是挪威。
sradman查看英文原文
> The most common species found were willow ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus), white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla), common snipe (Gallinago gallinago), hooded crow (Corvus cornix), and meadow pipit (Anthus pratensis) (Table S1). Eagles are large conspicuous birds and will therefore often catch the attention of passers-by. Ptarmigan are often found near the turbine base as they are suspected to collide with the actual tower This disproves my assumption that many of the collisions were with nighttime migratory birds (maybe that is buildings?). I hope this simple fix applies to all locales and is not specific to Norway.
补充提出人类与鸟类视觉需求矛盾，设想两全的涂色方案
风力涡轮机被漆成白色是为了降低可见度（阴天时尤其有效）。人类不想看到涡轮机，鸟类却需要看到。不知道能否找到一种对人类而言融入自然风景、对鸟类却非常显眼的颜色。
barbegal查看英文原文
Wind turbines are painted white to reduce their visibility (particularly effective on overcast days). Humans don't want to see wind turbines, birds do. I wonder wether the turbines can be painted a color which blends in with the natural scenery for humans but is really visible for birds.
历次讨论
- 2020Hacker News 讨论帖206 分 · 69 评
- 2022Hacker News 讨论帖209 分 · 238 评
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