能源、气候与材料2020advances.sciencemag.org
出现超出人类耐受极限的高温高湿天气
The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance (2020)
入门 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：湿球温度概念、基础气候学
导读
这篇论文研究了全球范围内湿球温度（wet-bulb temperature）的观测记录，发现某些沿海地区已出现接近或超过 35°C 人类生存理论上限的高温高湿天气，比气候模型预测的时间更早。研究表明这种极端湿热条件对人类而言已达到无法通过出汗散热的耐受极限。
HN 关注点：气候变化带来的极端高温高湿对人类生存的实际威胁，讨论焦点包括湿球温度的科学含义、亲身经历以及社会适应能力。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：支持 1 质疑 1 补充 3 亲历 3
支持以科幻小说情节为例，警示湿球 35°C 热浪叠加停电可能造成大规模死亡，尤其威胁贫困热带国家。
金·斯坦利·罗宾逊的新书《未来部》开篇就描绘了一个令人不安的场景：一场湿球温度达 35°C 的热浪。在这种温度下，连年轻健康的人也无法存活，如果再叠加停电（如书中情节），热浪下的人很可能全部死亡。考虑到全球气温持续上升而碳减排进展乏力，这种热浪在未来出现的可能性越来越大，尤其是缺乏稳定供电降温基础设施的贫穷热带国家可能面临大规模死亡。
boplicity查看英文原文
Kim Stanley Robinson's recent book The Ministry For the Future starts with a very disturbing scenario: A heatwave with a "web bulb" temperature of 35 Celsius. It turns out, in those temperatures, even young and healthy people can't survive. Combined with power outages, as happens in the book, everyone living under such a heat wave will likely die. It's looking increasingly likely that such heatwaves are possible in the future, and possibly quite deadly. This could result in the mass deaths of many people, especially in poor tropical countries that don't have a stable infrastructure to cool most people during such a heatwave. I hope a mass death event from a "web bulb" 35C heatwave never happens, but I'm losing hope, especially with the increasing global temperatures, and the very lackluster progress being made on carbon output.
亲历以印度金奈与班加罗尔的亲身对比，说明湿度对体感温度和户外活动能力的巨大影响。
印度有两座纬度相近的城市，差异非常明显：金奈位于沿海，班加罗尔在内陆高海拔地区。即使干球温度相同，体感差异也极其惊人。在班加罗尔，我总能找到阴凉处立刻凉快下来；但在金奈，我全身湿透，衣服被汗水浸透，总感觉自己快要晕倒。以前在班加罗尔我白天还能长距离散步，在金奈我连想跑步都没法在户外进行，出门只是为了跑向汽车并打开空调。
sudhirj查看英文原文
There are two cities in India that are pretty close by where this difference is very clear. Chennai is on the coast, while Bangalore is inland at a higher altitude while they’re both pretty much the same latitude. The difference in perception even if the dry bulb temperature is the same is insane. In Bangalore I can always find shade and it’ll be cool instantly, but in Chennai my whole body is always soaking wet, my clothes are drenched with my own sweat and I still feel like always about to faint. I used to take long walks during the day when I lived in Bangalore (it has other man made problems like traffic which are still irritating) but here I Chennai I can’t walk or jog outside even if I wanted to. I step outside only to run to the car and turn the AC on.
补充类比提问：空气质量指数超出量表上限（500）时对人体的危害是什么？
这个野火季我一直在想一个类似的问题：空气质量指数（AQI）到什么程度会超出人类耐受极限？AQI 的上限是 500，如果空气比这还糟会怎样？俄勒冈州梅德福附近的一些传感器读数已达 400 多甚至 500 出头——如果量表能延伸到 1000，会发生什么？我主要想到的是颗粒物，但 AQI 还包含 CO、SO2、NO2 等气体，也许这些更危险（而且肯定更难过滤）。
Johnny555查看英文原文
Similar question to this that I've been wondering this wildfire season -- at what point is AQI (Air Quality Index) too severe for human tolerance? The scale tops out at 500, what happens to a person if the air is even worse than that? Some sensors near Medford, OR are reading in the upper 400's and even low 500's -- what happens if it hits what would be the 1000's if the scale went that high? I'm mostly thinking of particulates, but AQI includes other gases like CO, SO2, NO2 so maybe those would be more dangerous than particulates (and certainly harder to filter out)
补充科普区分湿球温度与干球温度的概念差异。
我怀疑这里有人混淆了湿球温度和干球温度。湿球温度关系到你的空调或出汗能有多好的降温效果；干球温度则是我们平时说的气温读数，或听当地气象播报时提到的温度。
tomrod查看英文原文
I wonder if people confuse wet bulb and dry bulb here. Wet bulb is related to how well your air conditioner or sweating will cool you. Dry bulb is what we usually say when taking a temperature reading, or listening to the local news' meteorologist.
亲历以多哈转机经历说明一些地区已接近宜居临界点，未来可能出现需要特殊装备的'热区'。
在多哈的一次长时间转机让我对气候变化有了不同的紧迫感。在户外待着简直难以忍受，即使在夜间也是如此，他们甚至给露天市场装了空调。这让我想到，很多类似的地方可能已经处于临界点，再升温几度就会变得完全不适合人类居住。将来出现像极地那样的、没有特殊装备就无法进入的'热区'，会是一件很奇怪的事。
skohan查看英文原文
I have to say when I took an extended layover in Doah it gave me a different sense of urgency about climate change. It was just oppressive to be outside, even during the night and they air-condition their open air markets. It got me thinking that there are a lot of places like this which are probably on the edge, and where a few degrees of warming will make them simply uninhabitable to humans. It would be a strange thing to have "hot zones" like we have arctic regions where it's not possible to go without special equipment.
亲历以瑞士无空调环境下的亲身经历，佐证气候变化对日常生活的真实影响。
个人经历：我已经无法忍受夏天了。和瑞士大多数人一样，我没有空调，连办公室也往往没有。每年有一两个月，我的生产力下降、生活乐趣骤减，只想这一切赶紧结束。如果不去山里徒步，我也几乎看不到雪了。变化是真实存在的，我讨厌它。为什么不能是全球变冷呢？该死的物理定律。
kharak查看英文原文
Personal anectode. I already can't bear summer. I don't have AC, as most people don't have it here in Switzerland. Even offices tend to not have them. There are 1 to 2 months a year where my productivity sinks, enjoyment of life plummets and I just want it all to be over. I also barely see any snow anymore, if I don't hike in the mountains. I love snow. The change is real and I hate it. Couldn't it be global cooling instead of warming? Damn physics.
补充补充关于全球最热城市之一雅各布阿巴德的深度报道资料。
相关特稿：《生活在地球上最热城市之一是什么体验——那里可能很快将不宜居住》 https://time.com/longform/jacobabad-extreme-heat/ 及维基百科 Jacobabad#Climate 词条。
r721查看英文原文
Related feature piece: >What It’s Like Living in One of the Hottest Cities on Earth—Where It May Soon Be Uninhabitable https://time.com/longform/jacobabad-extreme-heat/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobabad#Climate
质疑乐观观点：人类会像适应严寒一样用空调适应极端高温。
说我乐观吧，但人类会学会生存和适应。温带气候地区的人们（如芝加哥、多伦多）本来就生活在冬天户外无法长时间生存的地方，只是把暖气换成空调而已。
finolex1查看英文原文
Color me optimistic, but we'll learn to survive and adapt. Humans in temperate climates (Chicago, Toronto, etc.) already live in places where it's too cold to survive outside for long in winter. Just replace heaters with ACs in this case.
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