经济与社会科学2022papers.ssrn.com
居家办公与写字楼地产的“末日”
Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse
入门 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：房地产估值基础、折现现金流模型
导读
该论文评估远程办公对纽约市商业写字楼价值的冲击：将疫情导致的现金流变化和折现率上升纳入重新估值，发现2020年写字楼价值下跌32%，长期看跌幅约28%，相当于约5000亿美元的价值毁灭。
HN 关注点：远程办公是否会长期摧毁商业地产价值，以及这对城市经济和投资的含义。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：质疑 3 补充 1
补充远程办公冲击的不只是写字楼，还有整个市中心服务业生态，可能让办公改住宅变成变相贫民区。
这不只影响写字楼租金，还波及整个依赖上班族的城市中心生态。比如一家主要服务办公室人群的有机食品小店，客流下降了70%；酒吧、咖啡馆、餐厅、剧院同样受冲击，而这些正是让城市生活有吸引力的东西。疫情前我本觉得住市中心公寓不错——不用通勤、氛围好、配套齐全，但现在这种活力生态已大不如前。谁还想住在这样的环境里改造的办公楼里？如果只是安置别无选择的人，那不就是在制造一种贫民区吗？
asimpleusecase查看英文原文
This has an impact not just in rents for office buildings but the entire ecosystem of support businesses that sell to workers who come into city centre to work. One example. Small organic food shop, that sold mostly to office workers and has seen a 70% drop in foot traffic. The same thing hits bars, cafes, restaurants, theatres and other venues. Those very things that make living near or in a city interesting for many people. In my case, precovid I thought a city centre apartment could be kinda nice, no commute, nice vibe and lots of access to amenities. But now much of that vibrant ecosystem is gone. Why would someone want to live in a converted office in such a setting? And if you house people who only have no other options - aren’t you just creating a type of ghetto?
质疑质疑'价值毁灭'的说法，认为价值可能只是转移而非消失。
论文摘要称：考虑到疫情引发的现金流和折现率影响，对纽约商业写字楼存量重新估值，发现2020年下跌32%，长期下跌28%，相当于5000亿美元的价值毁灭。这些价值真的是被'毁灭'了吗？难道不是被释放出来流向了别处？我真心好奇其中的动态。
wmeredith查看英文原文
From the abstract, “We revalue the stock of New York City commercial office buildings taking into account pandemic-induced cash flow and discount rate effects. We find a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and 28% in the longer-run, the latter representing a $500 billion value destruction.” Is that value “destroyed”? Is it not unlocked to flow elsewhere? I’m genuinely curious about the dynamics of this.
质疑数据仅来自2020年，住宅市场已明显回暖，下'末日'结论为时尚早。
论文用的是2020年的数据，我很好奇长期会怎样。2020年底到处是人们逃离城市、租金暴跌的报道；两年后，我租房的朋友们付的租金和疫情前一样甚至更高，公寓楼看起来也和以前一样满（虽然只是轶事）。如果远程办公常态化，商业地产价格确实难恢复，但很多人有动力去想解决办法，以前也让我意外过。在称之为'末日'之前，应该再等一两年的数据。
superfrank查看英文原文
I'm curious to see how this plays out in the long term since data they're using is from 2020. In late 2020 I remember reading tons of articles about how people were fleeing the city causing apartment rental prices to plummet. Now, two years later, most of my friends who rent are paying as much as, if not more than they were paying pre-covid and the apartment buildings I can see into look as full as they ever were (anecdotal evidence, I know). Personally, I don't see a way for commercial prices to come back if WFH is here to stay, but a lot of people are incentivized to think of a solution and I've been surprised before. I think we should get another year or twos worth of data before we start calling it an apocalypse.
质疑认为远程办公是疫情催生的暂时现象，市场将均值回归，聪明钱应抄底写字楼。
我相信均值回归，写字楼市场和远程办公也会如此。远程办公技术在疫情前就存在，如果真那么好用为什么以前没流行？我们并没有突然发明新技术，只是被一个暂时性因素推动使用它；当这个因素彻底消失后，一切会回到之前的均衡。不过心态的转变需要多年。这是我的看法：聪明的投资者会趁此期间收购写字楼。
IAmGraydon查看英文原文
I’m a believer in reversion to the mean, and I think that’s what we will see with the office market and work from home. The technology to work from home existed before the pandemic. Why didn’t it take off before the pandemic if it works so well? We didn’t suddenly discover a new technology here. The use of that technology was precipitated by a transient force, and when that force is removed completely, things will return to the previous equilibrium. It will take years for the mentality to revert, however. That’s my take. Smart investors will acquire office properties during this time.
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