经济与社会科学2019economics.harvard.edu编辑精选
一切的回报率，1870–2015
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
进阶 · 约 100 分钟读完前置知识：宏观经济学基础、资产定价基础、长期数据分析
导读
这篇论文利用1870–2015年多国的长期数据，估算股票、住房等各类资本的回报率，并将其与经济增长率进行比较。核心结论是财富回报率长期高于经济增长（r>g），且这一差距在多个国家和时期持续存在；股票与住房的长期回报相近，但住房波动较低，承担更高风险总体获得更高回报。评论者还指出，这为皮凯蒂关于财富不平等加剧的论点提供了长期证据。
HN 关注点：用150年跨国数据验证 r>g 与皮凯蒂，以及房产和股票长期回报对不平等、个人储蓄与投资决策的含义。
后来怎么样
该文成为长期资本回报与 r>g 争论的重要参照，推动了后续关于住房回报、财富不平等和资产配置的实证研究。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：支持 2 质疑 2
支持总结核心发现：风险收益正相关、股票与房产回报相近、房产波动更低、财富回报约为经济增长两倍。
我直接翻到第57页看结论——底线是富人越富。总结：承担更多风险获得更多回报，这基于150年数据集且跨国成立；股票市场和住房提供相似回报（不知道未来是否持续，但似乎没有理由改变）；住房波动更小（这点我觉得奇怪，因为买房可以大规模贷款，而401k不能加杠杆，通常杠杆会带来更高波动）；财富回报率高于经济增长，150年里几乎达到两倍增速（提醒自己多储蓄）。
anonu查看英文原文
I jumped to the conclusion (page 57) - but the bottom line is the rich get richer. In summary: - If you take more risk you get more reward - this is true based on their 150 year dataset and true across countries. - Equity markets and housing provide similar returns (NB: I wonder if that will continue to hold going forward? But there's no reason for that change...) - Housing is less volatile. (NB: Thats strange to me considering you can get a massive loan to buy a house but not so to lever up your 401k... the thinking is leverage causes more volatility). - The return on wealth is greater than that of the economy - almost 2x growth rate over 150 years. (NB: note to self: save more...)
质疑质疑房产资本增值长期正回报意味着住房生产率未进步、社会住房负担加重。
为什么房地产的实际回报率会高于0？如果真是这样，说明我们生产住房/住所的能力显著变差。部分可归因于地价上涨，但美国大部分地区并非土地受限。如果房地产真实资本增值部分长期为正（不含租金），那对社会相当令人担忧，意味着150多年来住房方面没有取得进步（电力、污水、管道等应归入公用事业）。若趋势持续，人们收入中越来越大比例将用于住房，越来越多家庭需住在更小空间，这与进步完全相反。补充：我只谈资本增值部分，不是租金部分；租金当然应大于0。
pascalxus查看英文原文
Why is the real rate of return on real estate anything above 0? If so, it means we're getting significantly worse at producing housing/shelter. Sure, some of it can be chalked up to land value increase. But, much of america is not land locked in any way. If real estate really is returning greater than 0 real returns (not including rent/dividend) then that is quite concerning for society. It means we haven't achieved any progress in housing for 150+ years (sure electricity/sewage/pipes, but that goes in a different category, more like utilities). If this trend continues, greater and greater percentage of people's incomes will go towards housing and more and more families will need to live in a given living space: the complete opposite of progress. EDIT: I'm talking about ONLY the capital gain portion, not the rent port. The rent portion of course should be greater than 0.
质疑警告总量回报不等于个人回报，聚合数据对个人理财和劳动分析意义有限。
小心从经济总量数据得出个人建议。总投资或劳动的总体收益率与个人收益率关系不大。换句话说，总体收益率不重要，只有你自己的收益率重要。就劳动而言，我常不确定讨论总量有何意义。软件工程师和快餐工人的工资差距巨大，分析二者平均总收益率我不理解有何意义。
alexmingoia查看英文原文
Be careful drawing personal advice from economic aggregates. Aggregate yield on investment or labor has little to do with individual yield on investment or labor. In other words, it doesn’t really matter what aggregate yields are only what your yields are. Often I’m not sure what the point of talking about aggregates is at all when it comes to labor. The gap between a software engineer salary and fast food worker salary is so huge I’m not sure I understand the meaning of analyzing the average aggregate yield of the two together.
支持数据支持 r>g 且差距扩大，验证皮凯蒂，持有资产优于劳动。
也证实 r>>g，回报率显著高于经济增长，验证皮凯蒂。也就是说，拥有资产相对于工作越来越有利。从这些数据看，差距似乎还在加速。第53页：尽管有波动，r与g的正差距是数据的持久特征：在我们考察的每个国家和每个时期，r都大于g。全球金融危机前的几十年，这一差距普遍扩大。
317070查看英文原文
Also confirming that r>>g, returns are considerably larger than economic growth, validating Piketty. I.e. it is increasingly getting more beneficial to own than to work. And from this data it seems that the difference is even accelerating. Page 53: >Despite some variation, the positive gap between r and g is a persistent feature of the data: r is bigger than g in every country and every time period that we consider. The last few decades prior to the Global Financial Crisis saw a general widening of this gap
历次讨论
- 2019Hacker News 讨论帖487 分 · 260 评
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