经济与社会科学2021som.yale.edu
1257–2019 年的银行业危机干预
Banking-Crisis Interventions, 1257-2019
入门 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：银行危机与最后贷款人概念、宏观经济学基础、金融史常识
导读
这篇论文（Yale 的 Metrick 与 Schmelzing）构建了一个覆盖 138 个国家、自 13 世纪以来共 1886 次银行危机干预的历史数据库，涵盖 20 类干预手段。核心发现是：金融部门的危机干预频率和规模自 17 世纪末以来持续上升，并在布雷顿森林体系瓦解后达到顶峰；干预方式也从传统的最后贷款人、暂停兑付、银行歇业，逐渐转向资本注入和对银行负债的全面担保。
HN 关注点：是因为数据横跨近八个世纪，量化了金融体系对政府救助日益依赖这一长期趋势，引发对救助合理性与道德风险的讨论。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：支持 1 质疑 1 补充 2
支持数据表明金融体系五个世纪以来对政府救助的依赖持续加深，干预规模和范围都在扩大
作者整理了 138 国、13 世纪以来 1886 次干预、20 个类别的数据，了不起的工作。建议先看第 31 页的图 6：全球金融机构救助干预次数自 1600 年代以来持续增加。正如摘要所说，干预频率和规模在后布雷顿森林时代达到顶峰，但这是自 17 世纪末以来更深层趋势的一部分。而且干预的范围也在扩大——从传统的最后贷款人、暂停兑付和银行歇业，转向资本注入和对银行负债的全面担保。简言之，至少五个世纪以来，金融体系越来越依赖政府支持。
cs702查看英文原文
The authors compiled data for 1886 interventions in 20 categories across 138 countries going back to the 13th century. Fabulous work. Looking forward to reading it. In the meantime, please do yourself a favor and take a look at Figure 6 on page 31, which shows that the number of interventions to rescue financial institutions around the world has been increasing consistently since the 1600's. As the authors put it in their abstract, "intervention frequencies and sizes suggest that the crisis problem in the financial sector has indeed reached an apex during the post-Bretton Woods era – but that such trends are part of a more deeply entrenched development that saw global intervention frequencies and sizes gradually rise since at least the late 17th century." And it's not only the frequencies and sizes of interventions that have increased, but also their scope. From the abstract: "The data shows a gradual shift over the past centuries from the traditional interventions of a lender-of-last-resort, suspensions of convertibility, and bank holidays, towards a much more prominent role for capital injections and sweeping guarantees of bank liabilities." In short, over the course of at least five centuries, the financial system has grown more and more dependent on governmental support.
补充债务危机与豁免的循环历史上是常态，救助本身可以接受，但金融家独占利益、缺乏问责令人愤怒
Graeber 的《债：5000 年债务史》记录了债务危机与随后豁免的循环在历史上是常态，而且可能是必要的——想想看，对付赢家通吃还有什么别的办法？累进税？政府施舍？这让我重新思考所有 bailout。尤其是结合 MMT 等凯恩斯主义 2.0 的新研究。如果救助和债务豁免更公平、更自下而上，我大概能接受。但金融家吞掉所有好处、抛弃受害者，还缺乏问责、被追责时还装委屈，这实在让人愤怒——比如危机期间奥巴马政府只是说高管巨额奖金观感不好，Jamie Dimon 就一副被冒犯的样子。
specialist查看英文原文
Graeber's book Debt: The First 5000 Years documents that cycles of debt crisis and subsequent forgiveness is historically normal. And probably necessary. I mean, think about it: What other remedies do we have to winner-takes-all? Progressive taxation? Government largess? Made me rethink all the bailouts, etc. Especially with the renewed scholarship on Keynesian 2.0 (MMT). I'd probably be ok with bailouts, jubilees if they were more fair, more bottom up. Financiers gobbling up all the cheddar, abandoning all their victim's, really pisses me off. Insult to injury is lack of consequences, acting aggrieved when their malfeasance is examined. Just one example being Jamie Dimon clutching his pearls when Obama Admin merely suggesting the optics of huge bonuses for execs during a meltdown was a bad look.
补充补充同作者的利率八百年下降趋势研究及其资本存量假说
论文合著者 Paul Schmelzing 还发表过一篇关于利率几个世纪以来总体呈下降趋势的论文（英格兰银行工作论文，1311-2018）。他最近在 Finance & History 播客上接受采访，其假说是：资本存量相当耐用，所以除了战争、革命（和瘟疫）之外需求不大——灾后人们要重建，资本需求上升；太平时期资本就闲置无处可用。1970 年代石油冲击是近 40 年来最近一次利率飙升，是相当独特的事件。
throw0101a查看英文原文
One of the co-authors, Paul Schmelzing, published a paper on how interest rates have been on a general downward trend for a few centuries: * https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018 Interviewed recently on the Finance & History podcast: * https://twitter.com/FinanceHistory1/status/1435170755432624130 * https://anchor.fm/carmen-hofmann/episodes/Interest-Rates-e16rp9u His hypothesis (23m) is that capital stock is fairly long lasting, so except for (mostly) wars and revolutions (and plagues), there isn't much demand: people want to rebuild after disasters, and so demand for capital goes up. When things are quiet then there's more just sloshing around with not much to do. The oil shock of 1970s, which caused the most recent spike in the last 40 years (which is tapering), was a fairly unique event for rates.
质疑用大富翁游戏规则讽刺央行可以无限印钞的现实
“银行永远不会破产。如果银行的钱用完了，银行家可以在任何普通纸上写下所需金额继续发行。”——大富翁游戏规则。
qwertyuiop_查看英文原文
"The Bank "never goes broke." If the Bank runs out of money, the Banker may issue as much as needed by writing on any ordinary paper. (in the direction of the arrow) the number of spaces indicated by the dice. After you have completed your play, the turn passes to the left." Monopoly - http://richard_wilding.tripod.com/monorules.htm#:~:text=The%20Bank%20%22never%20goes%20broke,writing%20on%20any%20ordinary%20paper.&text=(in%20the%20direction%20of%20the,turn%20passes%20to%20the%20left.
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