经济与社会科学2019stlouisfed.org
大学还值得读吗？回报下降的新计算
Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns
进阶 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：教育经济学基础、收入与财富统计、学生贷款制度
导读
这篇论文重新评估大学是否仍然值得读，讨论大学回报下降背景下的新算法：不只比较毕业生的收入溢价，也把财富积累、学费与学贷负担、不同人群差异纳入考量。评论指出，论文并非简单宣称“大学不值了”，其关键谜题是近年毕业生收入仍显著高于非毕业生，但财富积累优势并不明显；学贷不可破产免除等制度因素也被视为影响回报的重要变量。
HN 关注点：大学经济回报是否下降、学生贷款风险，以及不上大学或走技能工种的替代路径，讨论从个人经历延伸到制度激励。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：质疑 1 补充 1 亲历 2
补充论文区分收入与财富回报；学贷不可破产免除造成道德风险，让最无经验的学生承担风险。
细读会发现，这篇论文是对相关文献的有趣补充：它细致区分收入增长与财富增长，并考察其与人口特征的交互。这不是简单的“大学不如从前”叙事。最大谜题是，为何近年毕业生收入仍显著高于非毕业生，却没有积累显著更多财富。学费上涨、代际资本收益回报下降、金融素养不足和掠夺性贷款都可能是因素；最值得注意的是，2005 年以来学贷不能在破产中免除，可能影响很大。这一法律变化让我困惑：学校、金融机构和青少年三方中，没受过教育的青少年被指望判断学校、学位、开支和背景是否让教育值得，而另外两方拥有全部数据和经验；若大家都错了，就业不足的二十多岁年轻人最无力承担。更关键的是，他们最没有动力去改善影响未来学生的系统性问题。这造成道德风险，促使学校给高风险教育项目定高价，也削弱贷款方教育借款人的动力。
brownbat查看英文原文
This is a really interesting addition to the literature if you dig through it, with subtle distinctions between income gains and wealth gains and interactions with demographics. It's not a simple "college ain't what it used to be" story. The biggest puzzle is how to explain why recent grads still command significantly higher incomes than nongrads without accumulating significantly more wealth. Increasing tuition is a factor, as is the declining return on capital gains over successive generations. Limited financial literacy and predatory lending seem to be hurting recent grads too. Most notably, the inability to discharge school debt in bankruptcy since 2005 may have had strong effects. That last legal change remains bewildering to me. You have three parties: schools, financial institutions, and teenagers. So uneducated teenagers are expected to know whether or not their choice in school, degree, expenses, and personal background will make their education worth it? When the other parties have all the data and experience? And if it turns out everybody was wrong, the now barely-employed twenty-something is least prepared to absorb the burden. More importantly, the least susceptible to incentives to improve this endemic situation for other future students. It creates a moral hazard which drives schools to overprice courses of education that are higher risk, and removes any incentive for lenders to educate borrowers on expected returns from different choices. Policy circles are hotly debating right now how to overhaul the entire system. Maybe we should acknowledge the policy changes that helped break everything in the first place, and reverse those as soon as possible.
质疑常被忽略的辍学风险：仅约60%六年内毕业，未毕业者背负债务却无学位收益。
一个很少被讨论的点是上大学的风险。常被引用的研究比较大学毕业生与非毕业生收入，再和教育成本对比，通常看起来相当正面。但在四年制项目入学的学生中，只有 60% 在六年内毕业。对这些学生来说，大学反而害了他们：背负重债，却拿不到学位收益。还要考虑他们在读期间工作小时更少，甚至不工作，损失更多本可赚到的工资。开始并完成大学的期望值受到质疑，但如果你只有 60% 完成概率，开始大学的期望值显然是负的。
kerkeslager查看英文原文
One thing I don't see talked about a lot is the risk involved in going to college. All the frequently-cited studies about college look at the incomes of college graduates versus the incomes of non-college graduates, and then compare that to the cost of education, and that generally looks fairly positive. But of students who enroll in 4-year programs, only 60% graduate within 6 years[1]. For these students, college has actively harmed them: they're saddled with crippling debt, but don't get the benefits of a college degree. Also consider that they aren't working as many hours, if any, during college, so they lose even more in wages they could have earned. The EV if starting and finishing college is coming into question, but the EV of starting college is clearly negative if you have only a 60% chance of finishing. [1] https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=40
亲历学位在筛选、移民和摊薄成本上仍有务实价值，但高学费加低薪行业的组合不划算。
我在新西兰一所无名大学拿过学位，出于几个务实原因还会再读：很多公司没学位就直接筛人，这是现实；有学位极大提升移居海外能力，我毕业后能搬到美国，积分制移民也给学位大幅加分；不必反复解释自己为什么没学位；把约 6 万新西兰元（约 4 万美元）成本摊到职业生涯，每年约 1000 美元、每小时约 0.5 美元，收入增长后几乎可忽略。但为生活方式付州外或私立高价，之后进入低薪行业（如教书），回报就很不划算。
seem_2211查看英文原文
I have a degree from a no-name university in New Zealand. I'd do it again for a few pragmatic reasons. 1: Lots of companies will reject you on sight without a degree. I don't think it's a good thing, but it is reality. 2: With a degree your ability to move overseas dramatically improves. I moved to America after graduating. I flat out couldn't have done that without a degree. Points based systems immigration systems like New Zealand have dramatic bonuses for people with degrees. 3: You don't have to jump through the hoops and explain why you don't have a degree all the time. Stupid reason I know, but it's something I've seen friends without degrees have to do constantly - and not just in career situations. As I mentioned, I went to a no-name university. If you live in NZ, you'll know it. If you're an American, chances are, you've never heard of it. But because I have a degree, it doesn't ever really come up. 4: The cost isn't that bad, when you spread it out over a career. My degree & living costs cost about $60k NZD (~$40k USD). That's $1k USD / year, or $.50 per hour. Considering how my income has multiplied in the few years since I've graduated (SF wages help tremendously here), the actual cost is barely anything, even when you control for the opportunity cost of studying. Where I think College returns make a lot less sense • Paying out of state tuition for lifestyle reasons, when you're going into a relatively low paid field afterwards (e.g. teaching). • Paying private school tuition at a school without a strong reputation • Grad school, in general, seems to be a rip off
亲历高技能蓝领收入高且难外包，对比高学历低薪加学贷，可能推动非大学路径回潮。
我家有人是专科护士：两年学校加培训，想工作的任何时段 60 美元/小时，周末和超 8 小时 90 美元/小时，需求高到他拒活，想去美属萨摩亚或迈阿密随时被雇。我雇人装车库门，一小时 900 美元；水管工不愿为 30 分钟 300 美元的活上门；换刹车账单也很贵，这些活很难外包。而我遇到的星巴克员工常有硕士学位和 9 万美元学贷，破产也不能免除学贷。我觉得风向要转向“非大学”方向。
ransom1538查看英文原文
A person in our family is a specialized nurse. Two years of school, then some more training. $60hr any hour they "wish" to work. Saturdays/Sundays are $90hr, so is any hour after 8 hours. The demand is so high he just rejects work. If he wants to work in American Samoa or Miami: hired. I hired a person to install a garage door. $900 for an hour of work. My plumber wont show up for a 30 minute $300 job. I will call again, tomorrow fingers crossed. Get your brakes replaced - look at that bill. Try outsourcing that. Everyone I meet that works at starbucks has a masters AND 90k in student debt. Bankruptcy doesn't make student loans go away. I think things are about to start swinging in the "non-college" direction.
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历次讨论
- 2019Hacker News 讨论帖247 分 · 351 评
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