经济与社会科学2014papers.ssrn.com
政府监控与互联网搜索行为
Government Surveillance and Internet Search Behavior
入门 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：计量经济学基础、Google Trends 数据使用
导读
这篇论文利用跨国面板数据研究斯诺登事件后政府监控对互联网搜索行为的影响，发现用户会减少使用那些他们认为可能招致美国政府麻烦的搜索词，即所谓“寒蝉效应”。
HN 关注点：斯诺登事件揭示的大规模监控对普通人行为的实际影响，讨论焦点是寒蝉效应是否真实存在以及研究方法能否支撑该结论。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：支持 1 质疑 2 补充 1
支持将监控寒蝉效应类比为《1984》中的思想罪，并反思其正当性问题
斯诺登事件（更准确说是那些匿名的、不受问责的 NSA 主管们的所作所为）正是奥威尔在《1984》中想表达的东西：思想罪的概念——人们因为害怕秘密警察会因某个念头找上门，而不敢去研究某些话题。而执行者完全隐身，你对此无能为力，连追问主管的名字、追问哪些思想算思想罪本身都成了思想罪。也许乌托邦社会会认为惩罚邪恶念头是合理的——如果邻居在琢磨怎么造炸弹，秘密警察提前制止岂不更好？问题在于秘密警察只执行统治者的规则，而对底层比对上层管得更严。
sentientmachine查看英文原文
What Snowden did, or more specifically what the faceless, unaccountable and un-nameable NSA directors did was what George Orwell was trying to capture in his famous novel. The notion of thoughtcrime and crimethink being the punishable event in the minds of the people. Where people are afraid to research something because of the perception that the secret unaccountable police will come take you away if you give the idea too much thought. And there is nothing you or anyone can do about it because the entity doing the enforcing is completely hidden. Even asking for the names of the directors and writing about what they've done is crimethink. Thinking about or asking for the document describing which thoughts are crimethink is also crimethink. But perhaps I'm looking at this the wrong way, maybe a utopian civilization would consider thoughts of evil, thoughts of crime and intentions to harm others as a justifiably punishable event. If your neighbor is thinking about how to make a bomb, or how to kill someone, or how to commit suicide, or how to defraud and deceive others, wouldn't it be better if the secret police put a stop to it there? We could live in a post-crime society. Where everyone is un-corruptable and all humans treat each other as lovingly as we treat our own bodies. The problem with this is that the secret police only enforce the rules of the rulers, which has a thicker script for the lower classes than the upper classes.
质疑质疑研究方法：数据只来自 Google，无法排除用户转向隐私搜索引擎
由于他们的数据基于 Google Trends，唯一能有效得出的结论是：用户在 Google 上更少搜索这类词。有敏感搜索需求的人可能已转向 DuckDuckGo 这类不记录用户搜索的搜索引擎。
greenyoda查看英文原文
"Using panel data, our result suggest that cross-nationally, users were less likely to search using search terms that they believed might get them in trouble with the U. S. government." Since their data is based on Google Trends, the only conclusion they can validly draw from their research is that users were less likely to search for such terms on Google. People with sensitive search topics may have moved to a search engine like DuckDuckGo, which doesn't log users' searches.
质疑怀疑普通用户的行为并未因此改变
我怀疑这根本没改变普通用户的搜索行为。
sigzero查看英文原文
I doubt it changed the search behavior of "Joe User" at all.
补充半开玩笑地提出监控是否也改变了色情内容消费行为
那“斯诺登事件如何改变了在线色情内容消费行为”呢？因为我正考虑彻底戒掉这些——被某个诡异组织偷窥？不，谢谢。这肯定也有人研究过吧？
Holbein查看英文原文
How about "how the Snowden relevations changed the behaviour with online porn"? Because I'm considering leaving all that behind. Some creepy organisation going all peeping tom on me? No thanks. Sure this has been researched as well?
历次讨论
- 2014Hacker News 讨论帖151 分 · 28 评
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