经济与社会科学2021academic.oup.com
严格的身份证法并不能阻止选民：来自美国全国面板的证据
Strict Id Laws Don’t Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel
入门 · 约 60 分钟读完前置知识：美国选举制度基础、基础统计学(面板数据/差分概念)
导读
这篇发表于《经济学季刊》(QJE) 的研究利用美国全国面板数据，检验严格的选民身份认证法律是否会降低投票率。结论是严格身份法本身并未显著减少选民投票，作者认为这可能是因为各方的动员努力抵消了潜在的抑制作用。
HN 关注点：美国选举制度与投票权争议，讨论焦点从论文结论延伸到身份法是否被用作压制特定群体投票的工具，以及美国与其他国家选举流程的对比。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：质疑 1 补充 3
补充严格身份法是否无害，取决于各州是否公平地保障证件获取，否则可被用作选择性压制投票的工具
这一结论成立的前提是各州确实努力保证所有人都能免费获得所需证件（任何收费都违反第24修正案），而不是玩花样让某些群体更难投票。常见的偏袒手段包括：不承认大学学生证（州立学校发的也不行）却承认狩猎执照；阻止持外州驾照的大学生投票；对姓名与出生证明不符的人（主要是已婚女性）设置额外障碍；以及在倾向反对党的县关闭车管所(DMV)并限制营业时间。
not2b查看英文原文
This will be true provided that states make an effort to assure that all can obtain the required ID, for free (any fee to vote would violate the 24th Amendment) and don't play games to try to make it harder for some groups than others. Examples of ways to put your thumb on the scale: * refuse to accept college IDs as valid for voting, even those issued by the state government because it's a state school (college students are more likely to vote for the "wrong" party). Hunting licenses? Cool (people with hunting licenses are more likely to vote for the "right" party). * prevent college students who live most of the year in-state, and can prove it, but have an out-of-state driver's license, from voting. * place extra hoops on people whose name doesn't match their birth certificate, make them produce every document with every change and toss their registration if there's a typo (this mainly affects married women, who are more likely to vote for the "wrong" party). This is an effective way to disenfranchise a lot of older women who don't have a current driver's license. * close as many DMV offices as you can in counties where people don't vote your way, restrict the hours on the remaining offices.
质疑质疑论文标题夸大了结论，数据实际显示身份法确实降低投票率，只是被动员抵消了
标题本应是“需要强有力的动员努力才能抵消身份法对投票率的降低”，因为摘要中的数据实际说明的是这一点。
titzer查看英文原文
The title should have been "Strong mobilization efforts needed to neutralize voter turnout reduction of ID laws", because that's what the data in their abstract actually says.
补充以欧洲经验对比，认为美国选民身份验证和选举流程过于松散
作为欧洲人，我对美国选民身份验证水平之低感到惊讶。我们年满18岁人人都免费领到国家身份证，选举时只能到指定投票点，出示证件核对名单后投票，普通公民可提前登记到场监督计票，空白选票数也会与未到场人数核对。美国选举看起来像个笑话。
drno123查看英文原文
I am amazed about low level od voter authentication in the USA. Living in Europe, we get national ID card when we turn 18. Everyone gets it. It is not hard to get it, it does not cost anything, even mentally challenged people get it. When there is an election, you need to show up with your ID card on voting place close to your residence - you cannot show in any voting place but one assigned to you. There they have a printed list with names of all eligible voters in the area, they check your ID card and you vote. When the votes are counted, any ordinary citizen can be present and verify the counts, providing he has registered in advance to be present at vote counting. Empty ballots are counted and verified against number od people that did not show up. American elections seem like a joke.
补充认为美国选举的真正风险不在个人欺诈，而在计票环节缺乏像澳大利亚那样的制衡
更大的问题其实在计票环节。在澳大利亚，计票有大量制衡机制：投票数在统计完成前不公布、计票方必须中立、监督员依法必须被允许全程观看、计票员在全部清点完成前不得离开房间。美国选举高度去中心化，个人欺诈在统计上很难影响结果，真正的风险在于有权势者控制谁计票以及如何判定哪些选票有效。
tonfreed查看英文原文
Honestly, that's not even the biggest problem. Here in Australia, there are so many checks and balances when it comes to counting votes that it actually disgusted me when I heard some of the games various entities were playing in your last presidential election. The fact that the number of votes cast wasn't released until results were tallied and they kept "finding" more to count was perplexing. That partisan orgs like unions were given the contract to do the counting was also a really strange thing to do. And that scrutineers were kicked out in places was a disgusting act, here they by law must be allowed to watch everything regardless of political affiliation. We also do not let counters out of the room until everything has been counted and accounted for and have multiple checks along the way to make sure nothing has been lost or added. Seems statistically unlikely to me that individual fraud would make any difference in US elections given how decentralised it is, if anything was happening it'd be powerful players controlling who is counting and how they are deciding which votes count and which don't.
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