经济与社会科学2021onlinelibrary.wiley.com
电视广告效果与盈利能力
TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability
进阶 · 约 60 分钟读完前置知识：计量经济学、因果推断、广告营销基础
导读
这篇论文研究电视广告对销售的效果与盈利能力，基于大规模品牌数据/实验估计广告的边际投资回报，结论是多数品牌的边际广告ROI为负，暗示广告投入过度。它试图回答电视广告是否有效、是否值得投放，以及效果能否跨品牌推广。
HN 关注点：广告ROI是否真能衡量、品牌广告的长期效应是否被短期分析低估，以及论文标题是否掩盖了“多数品牌过度投放”的核心结论。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：质疑 1 补充 2 亲历 1
质疑品牌广告是长期、难测的资产投资，用短期ROI衡量会低估其效果。
这类研究和结论存在根本误解（无论是否有意）。限时促销（如九折）在短时间尺度上有效且易测，可以容易算出ROI且常为正；但品牌广告不同，它在数年甚至数十年的尺度上起作用。可口可乐圣诞北极熊广告不是为了提升当周销量，也不应这样衡量。品牌广告的真实效果是未来100年里每天为销售增加几美分（不是几美元），是长期投资；因此很难测量或控制混杂因素，但这不意味着它无效！没有品牌投入，品牌价值每天也会以几美分或更多速度流失。来源：从事营销广告前沿12年以上。
hammock查看英文原文
There is a fundamental misunderstanding (intentional or not) with these types of studies and claims. Limited-time promotions, e.g. a 10% off sale, work on short timescales that are easily measured. You can easily say what the ROI is of an advertised promotion, and it is often positive. (Side note, these promotions have a more-difficult-to-measure detrimental effect on your long-term profitability, closely related to the point I am about to make below) Brand advertising, in contrast, works on a spread-out scale of years or decades. When Coca-Cola runs a polar bear ad at Christmastime they don't do it to increase sales of Coke that week, nor should it be measured that way. The actual effect that a brand advertisement has, is to add PENNIES (not dollars) to their sales every day, for the next 100 YEARS. It's a long-term investment. And for these reasons hard if not impossible to measure or control for confounders - but that doesn't mean it doesn't work!! And without that brand investment, their brand value is continuously eroding away, at a rate of pennies (or more) per day. Source: Been on the leading edge of marketing and advertising for over 12 years
补充广告是竞争性囚徒困境，个体很难单方面退出。
广告本质上是一场囚徒困境。如果某领域所有竞争者都投入100美元广告，他们预期回报都可能为零；但如果单一公司不投，它的处境会更糟，因为竞争对手的回报会自动更高。
paxys查看英文原文
Advertising is at its core a prisoner's dilemma. If every competitor in a certain space puts in $100 in advertising, they can all expect $0 in returns. However if a single company put in nothing they would be in a worse place because their competitors' returns would automatically become higher.
补充论文核心结论是多数品牌边际广告ROI为负、存在过度投资，标题不应只说有效性。
标题有严重错误。应该是：ROI分析显示，超过80%的品牌在边际上ROI为负，意味着多数公司广告投入过度。
lupire查看英文原文
Title is critically incorrect. It should be: > The ROI analysis shows negative ROIs at the margin for more than 80% of brands, implying over-investment in advertising by most firms.
亲历亲历显示品牌广告有长期飞轮效应和招聘等间接收益，ROI难以衡量。
我是一家专业服务公司的营销总监。大约7年前我们开始在广播和电视上做广告。第一次活动的获客成本约1万美元，非常贵，我们很失望。我们坚持做下去，获客成本逐年下降；7年后约为750美元。品牌广告像飞轮：持续给它燃料，过一段时间才真正转起来。我真不认为ROI可以衡量，尤其它还以其他方式帮助业务：自从投放广告后，我们吸引人才也更容易了。拥有知名品牌极其强大。
human查看英文原文
I am the marketing director at a professional service firm. We started advertising on radio and tv about 7 years ago. The first campaign we did generated clients at a cost of about $10,000 each. That was very expensive and we were disappointed. We kept going and we’ve seen the cost per acquisition go lower every year. After 7 years we are around 750$. Brand advertising is like a flywheel: you keep fueling it and it takes a while before it’s actually spinning. I really don’t think you can measure ROI. Especially since it helps your business in other ways too. Since we have been advertising it’s actually been easier for us to attract talent. Having a known brand is immensely powerful.
历次讨论
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