经济与社会科学2020papers.ssrn.com
博弈论基础简明导论
A Brief Introduction to the Basics of Game Theory
入门 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：基础概率与数学思维、经济学常识
导读
这是一篇博弈论基础入门论文，介绍了博弈论的基本概念与经典模型（如囚徒困境、公地悲剧等）。评论区讨论了博弈论的实际价值：有人认为纯理性模型脱离现实，人类决策还受沟通、声誉和报复机制等因素影响。
HN 关注点：博弈论入门资料的质量，以及经典理性人模型在现实中是否真的适用。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：质疑 1 补充 3
补充补充了论文中失效的慕课链接
这些博弈论慕课对我很有用，不过论文里的链接已过期。课程现在在这里：https://web.stanford.edu/~jacksonm/courses.html
nsriv查看英文原文
These Game Theory MOOCs have been really useful to me, but the link in the paper is outdated. The courses are available here: https://web.stanford.edu/~jacksonm/courses.html
补充询问适合建模博弈论的编程语言
外行提问：有没有特别适合建模博弈的编程语言？
airstrike查看英文原文
Layman's question: are there programming languages that are particularly well-suited for modeling games?
补充补充相关资料链接
推荐阅读《博弈论有用吗？》(2012)：https://agtb.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/is-game-theory-useful/
optimalsolver查看英文原文
"Is Game Theory Useful?" (2012) [0] [0] https://agtb.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/is-game-theory-useful/
质疑批评论文质量，认为纯理性模型脱离现实，真实博弈依赖沟通、声誉与报复机制
如果你真的懂博弈论，这篇论文会显得很可笑——作者要么刻意隐去了应用博弈论的关键信息，要么对著名原理和进展研究不足。更简单更现实的入门是 https://ncase.me/trust/ 。博弈论常被解释成数学题：人类面对特定情境需要做选择。这些情境是有趣的思想实验，但用处和著名的电车难题差不多。现实中影响人类决策的变量远比纯理性方程能定义的多，未定义的变量往往在沟通理论、声誉或审计系统的范畴内。以著名的囚徒困境为例，真正的解法是在困境发生前建立带外的秘密沟通渠道，加上已知的声誉机制和背叛报复惩罚。著名的'公地悲剧'理性资源优化博弈常被引用来为马基雅维利式剥削辩护，但人类是社会性动物，受声誉约束，拥有复杂的沟通、合作和报复能力。Elinor Ostrom 的《Rules, games, and common-pool resources》和 Robert Axelrod 的《The Evolution of Cooperation》都在人类尺度的现实语境中解释了博弈论。
nosuchthing查看英文原文
This paper is funny if you actually understand game theory because you can see how the author either chose to withhold key applicable information for applied game theory or inadequately researched famous game theory principles and developments. This is a much easier and more realistic introduction to game theory principles: https://ncase.me/trust/ Game theory is often explained as a math problem involving humans and a specific scenario that requires a choice, from humans. The scenarios are fun thought experiments and about as useful as the famous trolley problem [1][2] In reality humans have many more variables affecting decisions than the pure rational equations can clearly define. Often the undefined variables are within the context of communication theory and reputation or auditing systems. In the case of the famous prisoners dilemma, the real solution is establishing a secret out of band communication channel prior to the dilemma, alongside a known reputation and retaliation penalty for abusing the mutual trust.[3] [4] The famous "tragedy of the commons" rational resource optimization game is often cited as justification for machiavellian exploitation, yet humans being social creatures are subject to reputations, and have sophisticated communication, cooperation, and retaliation abilities. [4] Elinor Ostrom's "Rules, games, and common-pool resources" and Robert Axelrod's work "The Evolution of Cooperation" both explain game theory in the context of human scale realities. Of particular interest to the hacker community would be Ostrom's Common Pool Resource principles, which are applicable to adhoc decentralized communities. :) At the core of game theory, and human civilization is communication and trust. The abuse of mass media to manipulate populations knows the power of communication and cultural narratives, and we're witnessing what's often described in terms such as "hypernormalization" or "accelerationism" [6][7][8][9] For a better applicable human scale game theory primer, check out Bruce Schneier's (yes, the same legendary cryptographer Bruce), "Liars and Outliers" https://www.schneier.com/books/liars-and-outliers [1] https://medium.com/@sarabizarro/the-trolley-problem-now-903adaa295e9 [2] https://old.reddit.com/r/trolleyproblem/top/?sort=top&t=all [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0qjK3TWZE8 [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom#Design_principles_for_Common_Pool_Resource_(CPR)_institution [5] https://www.stuartmcmillen.com/blog/amusing-ourselves-to-death/ Neil Postman's "Amusing Ourselves to Death" [6] on Cybernetics and the 20th century "All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace" by Adam Curtis https://thoughtmaybe.com/all-watched-over-by-machines-of-loving-grace/ [7] on propaganda and 20th century culture "The Century of the Self" by Adam Curtis https://thoughtmaybe.com/the-century-of-the-self/ [8] on the hyperreal news and the use of crisis to manipulate populations "Hypernormalization" by Adam Curtis https://thoughtmaybe.com/hypernormalisation/ [9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism
相关资源
从这篇论文所有 HN 讨论帖的全部评论里整理出来的链接。
历次讨论
- 2020Hacker News 讨论帖181 分 · 19 评
同领域还值得读
一切的回报率，1870–2015
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
利用1870–2015年多国的长期数据，估算股票、住房等各类资本的回报率，并将其与经济增长率进行比较。
经济与社会科学2019 · 487 分 · 260 评进阶 · 约 100 分钟编辑精选一切资产的回报率，1870–2015
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
构建了 1870–2015 年 16 个国家的长周期资产回报数据集，覆盖股票、住房、政府债券和短期票据，系统比较各类资产的真实回报与波动性。
经济与社会科学2018 · 215 分 · 151 评进阶 · 约 120 分钟编辑精选一切资产的回报率，1870–2015（2019）
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)
这篇发表于《经济学季刊》的论文构建了 1870–2015 年间 16 个主要发达国家的股票、债券、房地产等资产收益率的长周期数据库。
经济与社会科学2024 · 190 分 · 148 评进阶 · 约 80 分钟编辑精选想法是否越来越难找？
Are ideas getting harder to find?
探讨“想法是否越来越难找到”：通过衡量多个领域的“研究生产率”，发现维持相同的增长需要投入指数级增长的研究资源，即研究效率在持续下降。
经济与社会科学2016 · 182 分 · 106 评入门 · 约 60 分钟编辑精选比特币与区块链的经济极限
The Economic Limits of Bitcoin and the Blockchain
芝加哥大学 Eric Budish 的论文从经济学角度分析比特币与区块链的根本限制：核心论点是只要攻击网络（双花或砸盘做空）的收益超过挖矿成本，51% 算力攻击就有利可图，而挖矿…
经济与社会科学2018 · 176 分 · 37 评进阶 · 约 90 分钟编辑精选