经济与社会科学2018nber.org
年龄与高增长创业
Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship
入门 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：基本统计学概念、创业生态常识
导读
这篇 NBER 论文研究创业者年龄与高增长创业成功率的关系，结论是成功创业者的平均年龄偏大——高增长企业的创始人多为中年人，而非人们印象中的年轻天才。这与硅谷流行的“年轻辍学生创业”叙事形成反差。
HN 关注点：HN 读者长期浸泡在“20 多岁辍学创业”的神话中，这篇用数据挑战该叙事的论文自然引发关于年龄、经验与创业成功的热烈讨论。
后来怎么样
该研究被广泛引用，成为反驳'年轻创业天才'迷思的代表性证据，常出现在创业与政策讨论中。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：支持 1 质疑 1 补充 1 亲历 1
亲历以自身经历佐证：年长工程师在技术、判断力和财务上都更有创业优势
说实话，任何有工程经验的人都不会对此感到惊讶。作为资深开发者，我比三年前更能把想法落地：懂的东西多得多，能理解以前看不懂的前沿系统和语言研究，设计系统更快更可靠，更能分辨好点子和坏点子，也更擅长处理人际关系和管理自我。我财务稳定、有积蓄，能放心抽出时间去做想法。再过几年积累了领导经验，我预计会更高效。就白手起家办公司而言，年龄增长对我没有任何坏处。
jknoepfler查看英文原文
I honestly can't understand why this would shock anyone with experience in engineering. As a senior developer, I'm vastly more able to realize ideas than I was even three years ago. I also know vastly more. I'm able to understand cutting-edge systems and language research that I couldn't before. I'm able to design systems quickly and more reliably. I'm able to separate good ideas from bad ideas more reliably. I'm better with people and managing my own ego, and therefore able to navigate interpersonal situations more reliably. I'm also financially stable and have deep savings, so I'm able to take time off to pursue ideas more reliably. After a few more years, particularly as I gain leadership experience, I expect to be even more effective. There's literally no down-side to getting older in terms of my ability to bootstrap a successful company.
支持媒体偏爱年轻辍学创业的故事，因为它更有传播性，造成认知偏差
要注意的是，“年轻大学辍学生赚几十亿”比“中年、受过良好教育、有积蓄的人赚几十亿”更有故事性。前者更吸引点击和广告收入——它暗示人人都能成功；后者则意味着至少十年工作经验、可能还有教育和资本。显然哪种故事更容易在新闻和公众意识中流行。
leonroy查看英文原文
One thing to note is that 'young college drop out makes billions' is a more compelling story than 'middle aged, well educated person with good savings makes billions'. The former sells more clicks and hence advertising dollars - it conjures the notion that anyone can do it. The latter suggests at least a decade of work experience, probably an education and some money. It's clear which story is going to end up trending on the news and the public's consciousness.
质疑反驳：创业成功靠商业能力而非技术，所以年龄优势未必成立
我觉得这里面混着一点确认偏误和对年轻开发者的嫉妒。事实是，技术对商业成功的影响其实没那么大，商业嗅觉、预判趋势的能力和冒险精神才是关键。年长工程师创业并不比年轻的更成功，不是因为他们工程能力差，而是过了某个点之后工程能力本身就不重要了。SAP、Adobe、IBM 工程文化都很糟糕却赚大钱，Facebook 起家时用的是蹩脚的 PHP。技术本身成为商业差异化因素的例子很罕见，除非你在做高级 AI 或武器设计之类的东西。
volgo查看英文原文
I think there's a little bit of confirmation bias mixed with a bit of jealousy toward younger developers. The fact is, technology doesn't really matter that much to the success of a business. Business sense, ability to spot what's next, and a fair bit of risk taking attitude are what matters. Older engineers don't fare better than younger engineers in starting a business not because they're worse at engineering, but that after a certain point engineering skills simply don't matter. SAP, Adobe, IBM, all have terrible engineering culture, but rake in money. Facebook started with janky PHP. There are only rare instances where the technology itself was the differentiator in business. Maybe if you're working on advanced AI or weapon design or something
补充补充数据：多数 IPO 并非典型科技初创，高增长公司创始人本就多为中年人
如果这个结果让 HN 读者感到意外，那可能是因为最近 100 家 IPO 的名单同样令人意外：最近 100 起 IPO 中只有 19 家被归类为“科技”公司，其余分布在医疗保健、油气等领域。很多高增长公司并不是经典意义上从零开始、靠更好的产品取胜的初创公司。比如把研究商业化的制药公司，创始人往往是首席研究员，很可能是终身教授，至少 40 岁。
montrose查看英文原文
If this result is surprising to HN readers, it is probably because this list of the last 100 IPOs is also surprising: https://www.iposcoop.com/last-100-ipos/ Only 19 of the 100 most recent IPOs are classified as "technology" companies. The rest are in categories like "health care" and "oil and gas." There are a lot of high-growth companies that are not startups in the classic sense of starting from nothing and winning by building a better mousetrap. E.g. pharmaceutical companies commercializing research, where the founder is a PI and probably a tenured professor who's at least 40.
历次讨论
- 2018Hacker News 讨论帖242 分 · 87 评
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