经济与社会科学2017gwern.net
正面还是反面：掷硬币对重大人生决策与幸福感的影响
Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Happiness
进阶 · 约 55 分钟读完前置知识：基础统计与回归、随机对照试验、主观幸福感测量
导读
经济学家 Steven Levitt 招募了一批正被重大人生决策困扰的人，用抛硬币产生随机的外生推动力（正面就改变、反面维持现状），再追踪他们之后的决策与幸福感。论文的核心结论是：被硬币"推"着做出改变的人，事后报告的幸福感更高，暗示人们普遍存在过度维持现状的倾向。由于样本是通过社交媒体自愿报名的，结论的代表性存在明显局限。
HN 关注点："抛硬币决定人生"被做成了随机实验这个话题本身就很有趣，评论区既分享了亲身经历，也质疑样本自选（从 Freakonomics 听众里招募）对结论的影响。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：质疑 1 补充 1 亲历 2
亲历用家族移民的抛硬币轶事调侃硬币结果如何决定命运。
我祖母一家在大萧条初期抵达英国港口，抛了一枚硬币：正面去澳大利亚，反面去加拿大。我不知道硬币如何影响了他们对这个决定的满意度。我只知道两代人之后，我三月份还坐在零下9度的天气里，就因为"反面"。
mabbo查看英文原文
My grandmother's family arrived at the docks in England in the early depression years, and flipped a coin. Heads, Australia; Tails, Canada. I don't know how the coin affected their happiness with the decision they made. All I know is that two generations later, I'm sitting in -9C temperatures in mid-march because of "tails".
补充抛硬币的价值在于暴露自己对结果的真实感受，而非结果本身。
我也抛硬币，但不让结果决定行动，而是让"自己对结果的感觉"决定行动。多数时候我很果断，用不着抛；但如果某个机会或决定让我特别纠结、无法判断最佳方案，我就抛硬币看结果，然后判断自己对这结果是否心安、是否有遗憾。我依据的是看到结果那一刻的即时感受，而不是结果本身。
buro9查看英文原文
I coin toss, but I don't let the outcome determine the action. Instead I let how I feel about the outcome determine the action. Most of the time a coin toss is not required as I am quite decisive, but if I feel particularly paralysed by an opportunity or decision, and unable to determine the best course of action... then I will toss a coin and look at the outcome, and decide whether or not I feel at peace with the outcome, whether there is regret. I act on the immediate feeling of the outcome, not the outcome itself.
质疑样本是自选的、本就认同抛硬币的人，且作者自己也承认这一限定。
研究招募大部分是通过与 Freakonomics 关联的社交媒体完成的……招募时我强调只对"正为某个人生决定犯难"的人感兴趣……最后，这群人显然本身就对"用抛硬币解决重大人生困境"这个想法有好感。不是说结果就该被自动否定，但这是一个相当重要的限定条件。另外：实证经济学家正从数据的使用者变成数据的生产者，本文是这一趋势的极端体现——很难想象不自己造数据怎么回答本文的问题。随着社交媒体影响力增长，从广泛人群中招募随机田野实验被试的机会只会更多。这固然很酷，但你会担心：如果社会科学家因为人气而能开展重要研究，我们会迎来一个最多产的社会科学家必然越来越像艺人的世界。
kyleschiller查看英文原文
The great majority of the recruitment for the study was done through social media associated with Freakonomics... in the recruiting for the study, I emphasized that I was only interested in people who were having a difficult time making a life decision... Finally, this is a group which is apparently attracted to the idea of using a coin toss to potentially resolve major life dilemmas. Not that we should automatically dismiss the results, but that is a pretty important qualification. Also: Empirical economists are increasingly moving from a role of consumers of data to producers of data. This paper represents an extreme expression of that trend. It is difficult to imagine how one could hope to answer the questions addressed in this paper without generating the data. As the prominence of social media grows, opportunities to recruit subject pools for randomized field experiments from broad swaths of the population will only increase. As cool as that is, you've got to worry that if social scientists have the ability to conduct significant studies as a result of their popularity, we'll start to see a world where the most prolific social scientists are necessarily more and more like entertainers.
亲历抛硬币在空中时观察自己希望哪面朝上，用潜意识做决定。
卡在某个决定上时，我有时用这个技巧：抛起硬币，在它还在空中时，仔细留意我希望它落在哪一面。当我专注在那个瞬间，潜意识往往会显现出来。然后我就把那个感觉当作决定，直接无视硬币。目前为止没有后悔过！
binarymax查看英文原文
When stuck on a decision, sometimes I use this trick: I flip a coin, and while it's in the air, I pay close attention to how I want it to land. The subconscious tends to show itself when I am tuned in at that moment. Then I just use that feeling as the decision and ignore the coin. No regrets so far!
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