经济与社会科学2016papers.ssrn.com
风险投资家如何做决策？
How Do Venture Capitalists Make Decisions?
入门 · 约 45 分钟读完前置知识：风险投资基础、创业融资流程
导读
这篇论文通过问卷调查研究了风险投资家（VC）如何做投资决策，包括筛选项目时最看重的因素（如管理团队、商业模式等）以及投后管理方式。论文指出 VC 的项目筛选比例极高（约 100:1），且管理团队被认为是决策中最重要的因素。
HN 关注点：HN 读者对 VC 决策机制本身很感兴趣，讨论焦点集中在问卷调查方法能否反映真实决策行为，以及 VC 实际决策是否更多依赖社交证明和交易热度而非论文所述标准。
HN 评论精选
这几条评论里：质疑 3 补充 1 亲历 1
质疑讽刺 VC 只在项目毫无风险时才愿意投资
如果项目已经在全球市场取得成功、团队完整、产品成熟、明显赚大钱、有数万付费客户（我们其实更想看到数百万），并且所有风险都已消除——那我们就投资！
hoodoof查看英文原文
If it's already a success in a global market, with a complete team, a fully complete product, clearly making plenty of money with tens of thousands of paying customers (we'd really prefer to see millions) and all risk removed then WE INVEST!
质疑质疑问卷方法只能反映自我认知而非真实决策
这是个很有意思的问题，但基于问卷的回答只能告诉我们 VC 认为自己是如何做决策的。这个行业显然很保密，我认为更有意思的问题是研究他们的实际行为（revealed preferences），而不是自我评估。
hammerzeit查看英文原文
This is a really interesting question to ask, but survey-based responses only tells us how venture capitalists think they make decisions. Obviously this is a secretive industry but I think the far more interesting question to answer is around revealed preferences rather than self-assessment.
亲历亲历：VC 决策实际靠社交证明和 FOMO，而非理性评估
以我个人融资的经验（我从 Tim Draper 和 Salesforce 的 Marc Benioff 那里为 gun.js.org 融过资），关键全在于社会证明、熟人引荐，以及不能错过其他知名投资人已经入场的交易。这让我很惊讶，因为我是个极度节俭的人，看到人们以'钱在哪儿'的心态调动大额资金，而不是'我能获得什么最优价值'的思路，感觉很奇怪。
marknadal查看英文原文
In my personal experience of fund raising (I raised from billionaires Tim Draper and Marc Benioff of Salesforce for http://gun.js.org/ ) is that it is all about social proof, referral, and not missing out on a deal that another reputable name is already in on. This surprised me, because I'm an extreme penny pincher, so it was odd to see people move large sums of money in a "where's the money at" mentality rather than (perhaps my poor-man's mentality?) "what is the best value I can get?" process. Although Tim Draper was my lead, so he got the best value in the deal. ;) And I'm happy for it, because he's been remarkable to work with - very supporting, encouraging, and edifying.
补充从业者补充：项目来源压力大，团队重要是因为人才最难评估
写得不错，不过我觉得他们应该更详细地讲讲项目来源和决策过程。除了红杉这类机构，VC 在获取优质项目流上压力很大。100:1 的路演与投资比很能说明问题，很多时间浪费在与不合适的合伙人聊不合适的公司上。我猜那 99 个被拒的项目里有相当一部分最终被更合适的 VC 投了。论文认为管理团队最重要，我同意，但主要因为 VC 是领域专家——到决策深入时他们通常已对商业模式有了判断，只是人才确实更难评估。
chris_va查看英文原文
That was a nice read, though I do think they should've gone into more detail on sourcing and decision making. VCs (unless you are Sequoia) can get really stressed about good deal flow in sourcing. The 100:1 pitch:invest ratio is telling, and there is a lot of time wasted talking to startups where the current VC partner is not the right person to be evaluating the company. I would guess a good fraction of those 99 end up getting investments, but by a VC better suited to evaluate them. This is connected to decision making. The paper lists management as the most important factor, which I would agree with, but mostly because the VCs are domain specialists. By the time decision making gets intense, they already know (usually) how they feel about the business model. That doesn't mean it isn't as important, it is just a lot harder to judge talent.
质疑质疑：VC 中位回报差，其决策标准未必值得效仿
考虑到风险投资公司中位数回报的惨淡表现，也许论文中列出的这些标准应该被当作'如何不做投资决策'的指南。
hodder查看英文原文
Given the dismal returns on the median venture capital firm, perhaps the criteria identified in the paper should be a guide to how NOT to make investment decisions.
历次讨论
- 2016Hacker News 讨论帖77 分 · 27 评
- 2016Hacker News 讨论帖87 分 · 41 评
同领域还值得读
一切的回报率，1870–2015
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
利用1870–2015年多国的长期数据，估算股票、住房等各类资本的回报率，并将其与经济增长率进行比较。
经济与社会科学2019 · 487 分 · 260 评进阶 · 约 100 分钟编辑精选一切资产的回报率，1870–2015
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
构建了 1870–2015 年 16 个国家的长周期资产回报数据集，覆盖股票、住房、政府债券和短期票据，系统比较各类资产的真实回报与波动性。
经济与社会科学2018 · 215 分 · 151 评进阶 · 约 120 分钟编辑精选一切资产的回报率，1870–2015（2019）
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 (2019)
这篇发表于《经济学季刊》的论文构建了 1870–2015 年间 16 个主要发达国家的股票、债券、房地产等资产收益率的长周期数据库。
经济与社会科学2024 · 190 分 · 148 评进阶 · 约 80 分钟编辑精选想法是否越来越难找？
Are ideas getting harder to find?
探讨“想法是否越来越难找到”：通过衡量多个领域的“研究生产率”，发现维持相同的增长需要投入指数级增长的研究资源，即研究效率在持续下降。
经济与社会科学2016 · 182 分 · 106 评入门 · 约 60 分钟编辑精选比特币与区块链的经济极限
The Economic Limits of Bitcoin and the Blockchain
芝加哥大学 Eric Budish 的论文从经济学角度分析比特币与区块链的根本限制：核心论点是只要攻击网络（双花或砸盘做空）的收益超过挖矿成本，51% 算力攻击就有利可图，而挖矿…
经济与社会科学2018 · 176 分 · 37 评进阶 · 约 90 分钟编辑精选